Spanish Property Market has Hit Bottom Debate Over Recovery

The Spanish property market has hit bottom, but prices are unlikely to see any growth until 2011 according to a partner of the Knight Frank estate agency.

"If you put a home on the market at a 35 percent discount to highs from three years ago, and partially-financed, prices are going to stay at these levels until 2011," Prieto told Reuters in an interview.

But for sales to go ahead, properties need to be located in prime areas within cities' metropolitan circles.

"If you're trying to sell somewhere like Valdeluz or Sesena, 100 kilometres outside of Madrid, forget it. Properties on the coast or with these kinds of setbacks are going to be stalled for years," Prieto said.

We disagree about 1 thing, the coastal properties. Spain continues to be one of the most popular destinations with British buyers of overseas property. The fact that prices have fallen and bargains can now be found is unlikely to do anything to change that fact.

British buyer numbers are increasing in overseas property markets around the world. Spain has been slow to see the real benefit of this because of the repossessions problem, and because people are trying to wait just long enough to buy out the market -- as in to buy a property at the lowest price possible.

When this waiting period is over, and/or when credit conditions improve it is likely that the coastal areas that have not been overdeveloped will recover quite strongly based on increasing foreign demand.

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Spain House Prices and Sales Stabilising

Released on Tuesday, National Statistics Institute data showed the number of houses sold in Spain fell 8.2 percent in August, after rising for the previous three months.

On a yearly basis sales were down for the 20 th consecutive month. Here we see what is called by market analysts 'divergence' – where there is a discrepancy in the market direction shown by two indicators. Often such a technical anomaly is indicative of an imminent trend change.

The report went on to state that the year-on year volume drop of 9.9% in August (34,019 homes sold) compared with a year-on-year decline of 20.3 percent in July, and a record 47.6 percent drop in April. In other words the rate of annual volume decline is slowing. Of course making predictions is difficult, especially about the future. However it may well be that, now into the last quarter of the year, we will see sales volume stabilise, judging by these data points.

On Thursday a Spanish Housing Ministry reported annual house prices also fell – by 7.8 percent in the third quarter, up slightly from a record 8.2 percent fall in the second. Another survey by the private surveyors Tinsa came in with an 8.3 percent year-on-year fall in September compared to a 8.9 percent fall in August.

However the SHM also reported that the drop between quarters was much less, 0.9 percent compared to 1.9 percent last time. Once again, after steep falls, prices are levelling off, with a drop of under 3% over the past 6 months.

A recent poll showed that Spanish and foreign-based economists expect prices to fall on average to fall 32 percent from their 2007 peak. However, in markets, expectation is often the mother of disappointment. The global slump has lead to a collapse in new developments in Spain, meaning that supply of new homes could tighten going forward. Coupled with the divergence noted earlier in the article we could easily see Spanish property prices recovering as we move into the new year.

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UK RICS report The Party is not Over

With the conference season over, it seems party leaders have done nothing to unsettle international confidence. The credit ratings agency Moody's Investors Service, in an interview with Reuters on Monday, indicated that past 3 weeks of political posturing had reinforced Britain's triple-A rating.

As the 175-billion-pound rescue package by the Bank of England feeds into the economy, Britain is beginning to emerge from the steepest recession in decades.

While analysts believe the Bank is close to withdrawing quantitative easing (QE) opinion is divided over exactly when. Gordon Brown, speaking to a business audience this week showed he was wary of reducing QE too soon. Then again he would say that with a general election looming.

Meanwhile the stimulus package continues to feed through to house price recovery.

The latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors survey for England and Wales released on Tuesday showed house prices rising at their fastest rate since the credit crunch began more than two years ago.

22 percent more RICS surveyors reported rises than falls in the last quarter, the highest reading since the credit crunch began.

This reinforces recent reports by the major mortgage lenders showing the falls of last year are being reversed by record low interest rates and a continuing tight supply of property for sale.

The RICS survey showed demand continues to outstrip supply in the real estate market, helping the key forward indicator ratio of sales versus inventory to rise for a ninth consecutive month to its highest level since December 2007. Unsurprisingly the majority of surveyors questioned expected the current upward trend to continue through the next quarter.

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Top 10 most Popular Overseas Property Destinations in September

The latest edition of Property Abroad’s monthly top of the props has shown what a lot of industry data has shown in recent months; that buyers are increasingly favouring established markets. In September there was increases in popularity for Spain, Portugal, Greece and Germany.

Firstly, America continues to hold 1st place. Spain regained the second position it lost to France in August, France slipped back one into the 3rd place Spain held in August.

Turkey lost 4th place to Greece, which rose 1 place from being 5th most popular in August. Turkey slipped back to sixth place, with Portugal cheekily snatching 5th having held 7th last month.

Italy slipped back one place from 6th in August to 7th in September, possibly on reports that Italian property prices still have some room to fall.

Germany entered the chart in 8th place. This is most likely because Germany represents the pinnacle of a safe, stable established market. German property values have held throughout the crunch. This also reflects investors move toward buying based on rental income rather than capital growth.

Unfortunately for Cyprus, Germany’s entry into the chart knocked it back one place into 9th position. Egypt, also a new entry into the chart took 10th place. Australia, a new entry in 9th position last month was knocked back out again.

The top 10 most popular countries with those searching for overseas property on the Property Abroad.com portal in September were:

America
Spain
France
Greece
Portugal
Turkey
Italy
Germany
Cyprus
Egypt

And last month:

America
France
Spain
Turkey
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Cyprus
Australia
Germany

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British Speaking Commonwealth Countries May Raise Interest Rates

Technically Australia has managed to avoid recession altogether, seeing a contraction in its economy only for one solitary final quarter of 2008. Therefore it came as no surprise on Tuesday when Australia's central bank hiked its main interest rate to 3.25% from 3%, becoming the first G20 nation to do so.

In an upbeat economic assessment released to coincide with the rate increase, the bank noted house prices and mortgage lending were both growing at a solid pace. Confirmation of this assessment came today (Wednesday) when positive Australian housing and construction data added to the evidence of economic recovery. Strong demand for homes in the past year has been due to strong population growth and 50-year-low mortgage lending rates.

As the global economy bounces back, Australia is front-running the recovery. It is the only country in the developed world to show economic growth in the first half of 2009. While in the United States and Britain house prices were falling as financial and economic crisis unfolded, Australian house prices held up remarkably well, rising 4.2 percent in March-June.

The housing market accounted for 27 percent of all loans issued in August, and an increase in commitments by home-buyers saw investment lending surge 7.6 percent this month.

New build home construction loans rose 4.6 percent in the same time period, up 69 percent from a year ago and a nalysts now think that pent-up demand for housing and a growing population will foster a housing construction boom into 2010.

Such positive data backs the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep lifting interest rates in coming months from 'emergency' low levels. David de Garis, senior economist at National Australia Bank agreed with this view, saying 'Overall, this adds to the litany of other hard economic evidence that the recovery is well and truly emerging and there is absolutely nothing in this report to dissuade the RBA from lifting the cash rate again in November'

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House Prices Still Rising As Banks Increase Lending For Property

New figures from the Halifax released today show UK house prices rising for the third consecutive month in September, the first quarterly increase for two years. Increased demand and a lack of supply were cited as key to the rise.

Courageously hedging his bets Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis noted this 'could change and "constrain" prices in the coming months given the economic climate.' according to a new BBC report.

The Halifax said that while prices in the three months to September increased by 2.8% compared with the previous quarter to £163,533 the annual rate of change showed a drop of 7.4%.

Meanwhile the Land Registry recently said that house prices in England and Wales dropped 9.4% since August 2008 bringing the average home price to £155,968.

Both of these reports contrast with the Nationwide who said last week that prices in September had returned to the same level seen a year earlier.

However, there is general agreement that low interest rates and fewer properties on the market have been supporting the recent recovery in prices. Furthermore it seems the credit squeeze may be over.

Even as Brits cut back on consumer debt, as we reported last week, property lending is rising. Figures from the Bank of England show mortgage approvals have risen through most of the year. And a recent survey published today summarises “The international real estate lending market has improved in the second half of 2009, with more banks willing to lend sums over 20 million pounds on British commercial property”.

UK house price chart

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